- メモ
- 世の中の流れが流動的すぎて、二三日経つと情報がobsoletedなのが面白すぎる。
- 三年前は何がなにやらわからなかったけど、今は状況に振り回されるのを楽しもうじゃないか。:-)
Every now and then it is easy to forget that the one or two "better than expected" data points blasted by flashing headlines do nothing that merely mask what is an otherwise quite deplorable and deteriorating reality. For the disconnect between America and the rest of the world look no further than this chart showing the dramatic divergence between the DJIA, which has just gone positive for the year, and every other major global stock market. Yet for those who require a narrative to go with their numbers, here is The Economic Collapse with the latest of their traditionally comprehensive bulletins, this time summarizing the "25 signs that the financial world is about to hit the big red panic button."
- 時折、一つか二つの「期待よりも良く」点滅するヘッドラインによる忌々しい測定点が、さもなくば全く遺憾であり悪化しつつある現実が何であるかについて、ほとんど覆い隠さないことを忘れがちである。
- 米国と世界の残りとの間の断絶にとって、今年ポジティブな面が全くなかったDJIAと他の全ての主要なグローバル資本市場との間にある劇的な相違を示すこのチャート以上のものはないように思える。
- しかし、数字と共に語ることを求める人々にとって、最新の伝統的な総合報告書がある。今回は「金融界がまさに押そうとしている巨大な赤いパニックボタンの25の兆候」を纏めたものである。
From The Economic Collapse:
The following are 25 signs that the financial world is about to hit the big red panic button....
- 経済崩壊より：
- 以下は、金融界がまさに押そうとしている巨大な赤いパニックボタンの25の兆候である。
#1 According to a new study just released by Merrill Lynch, the U.S. economy has an 80% chance of going into another recession.
- #1 メリルリンチが公開した新しい調査によると、米国の経済は80%の確率で異なる不況に突入する。
#2 Will Bank of America be the next Lehman Brothers? Shares of Bank of America have fallen more than 40% over the past couple of months. Even though Warren Buffet recently stepped in with 5 billion dollars, the reality is that the problems for Bank of America are far from over. In fact, one analyst is projecting that Bank of America is going to need to raise 40 or 50 billion dollars in new capital.
- #2 バンクオブアメリカは次のリーマンブラザーズになるだろうか？バンクオブアメリカの株価は、過去二ヶ月に40%以上も下落した。ウォーレンバフェットが最近5bilドルと共に介入してすら、バンクオブアメリカにとっての問題は先が見えないというのが現実である。実際、あるアナリストは、バンクオブアメリカは40又は50bilドルの新規資本を必要とするだろうと予測している。
#3 European bank stocks have gotten absolutely hammered in recent weeks.
- #3 欧州の銀行の株価はここ数週間で完全に叩きつぶされた。
#4 So far, major international banks have announced layoffs of more than 60,000 workers, and more layoff announcements are expected this fall. A recent article in the New York Times detailed some of the carnage....
A new wave of layoffs is emblematic of this shift as nearly every major bank undertakes a cost-cutting initiative, some with names like Project Compass. UBS has announced 3,500 layoffs, 5 percent of its staff, and Citigroup is quietly cutting dozens of traders. Bank of America could cut as many as 10,000 jobs, or 3.5 percent of its work force. ABN Amro, Barclays, Bank of New York Mellon, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Lloyds, State Street and Wells Fargo have in recent months all announced plans to cut jobs ? tens of thousands all told.
- #4 これまで、主要な国際銀行は60,000人以上の雇用者を解雇すると表明しており、この秋に向けてさらなる解雇の表明が起こりうる。最近のニューヨークタイムズの記事が大虐殺の一部を詳しく述べている。
- 新たな解雇の波が、主要な銀行がコストカットの構想に着手しているというこの変遷を象徴している。いくつかはプロジェクトコンパスのような名前である。
- UBSは従業員の5%である3,500人の解雇を発表した。そして、シティグループは静かに多数のトレーダーを切り捨てた。
- バンクオブアメリカはその3.5%の労働力である10,000名に及ぶ従業員を切るだろう。
- ABNアムロ、バークレイズ、ニューヨークメロン銀行、クレディスイス、ゴールドマンサックス、HSBC、ロイズ、ステートストリート、そしてウェルズファーゴは全てここ数ヵ月間に解雇計画を発表した。これらは皆、一万人規模と言われている。
#5 Credit markets are really drying up. Do you remember what happened in 2008 when that happened? Many are now warning that we are getting very close to a repeat of that.
- #5 信用市場は本当に枯渇している。貴方は2008年に何が起こったかを覚えているだろうか？そして、それは何があった時の出来事だっただろうか？多くの人々は、今我々はその繰り返しに非常に近づいていると警告している。
#6 The Conference Board has announced that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell from 59.2 in July to 44.5 in August. That is the lowest reading that we have seen since the last recession ended.
- #6 全米産業審議会は、米国の消費者信頼感指数が7月の59.2から8月の44.5に下落したことを発表した。これは前回の不況が終わって以来我々が見る最低の観測値である。
#7 The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has fallen by almost 20 points over the last three months. This index is now the lowest it has been in 30 years.
- #7 ミシガン大学消費者信頼感指数はおよそ20ポイント過去三ヶ月間に下落した。この指数は今や過去30年間で最低である。
#8 The Philadelphia Fed's latest survey of regional manufacturing activity was absolutely nightmarish....
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a slightly positive reading of 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August. The index is now at its lowest level since March 2009
- #8 フィラデルフィア連銀による最新の地域生産活動調査は完全に悪夢だ...
- 現在の活動の景気動向指数であるこの調査の幅広い製造状況の測定値は、僅かにポジティブだった7月の3.2から8月の-30.8に後退した。この指数はいまや2009年3月以来最低の水準にある。
#9 According to Bloomberg, since World War II almost every time that the year over year change in real GDP has fallen below 2% the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession....
Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession. It’s hard to argue against an indicator with such a long history of accuracy.
- #9 ブルームバーグによると、第二次世界大戦以来ほぼ常に実質GDPの対前年比が2%以下に下落すると米国経済は景気後退に陥る...
- 1948年以来、四期の変化が2パーセント以下に下落すると常に、経済は景気後退に入っている。このような事実の長い歴史が示す指標に反対するのは難しい。
#10 Economic sentiment is falling in Europe as well. The following is from a recent Reuters article....
A monthly European Commission survey showed economic sentiment in the 17 countries using the euro, a good indication of future economic activity, fell to 98.3 in August from a revised 103 in July with optimism declining in all sectors.
- #10 景況感は欧州においても同様に下落している。以下は最近のロイター記事である...
- 月次の欧州委員会による調査では、ユーロ使用17カ国の景況感が、将来の経済活動についてよく兆候を示す指数が7月の修正後の103から8月の98.3に下落し、全ての分野において楽観が弱くなっている。
#11 The yield on 2 year Greek bonds is now an astronomical 42.47%.
#12 As I wrote about recently, the European Central Bank has stepped into the marketplace and is buying up huge amounts of sovereign debt from troubled nations such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. As a result, the ECB is also massively overleveraged at this point.
- #12 最近書いたように、欧州中央銀行は市場に足を踏み入れギリシャ、ポルトガル、スペイン、イタリアのように問題を抱えた国々から巨大な量の公的債務を買い上げている。その結果、ECBもまた現時点で非常に過剰レバレッジ化している。
#13 Most of the major banks in Europe are also leveraged to the hilt and have tremendous exposure to European sovereign debt.
#14 Political wrangling in Europe is threatening to unravel the Greek bailout package. In a recent article, Satyajit Das described what has been going on behind the scenes in the EU....
The sticking point is a demand for collateral for the second bailout package. Finland demanded and got Euro 500 million in cash as security against their Euro 1,400 million share of the second bailout package. Hearing of the ill-advised side deal between Greece and Finland, Austria, the Netherlands and Slovakia also are now demanding collateral, arguing that their banks were less exposed to Greece than their counterparts in Germany and France entitling them to special treatment. At least, one German parliamentarian has also asked the logical question, why Germany is not receiving similar collateral.
- #14 欧州の政治論争はギリシャ救済パッケージの解体を脅かしている。最近の記事で、Satyajit DasはEUの状勢の背後で何が起こりつつあるのかを記述している。
- 障害は第二の救済パッケージの為の担保の要求である。フィンランドは、1,400Mユーロの第二の救済パッケージの割り当てに対する見返りとして500Mユーロを現金で要求しそれを得た。
#15 German Chancellor Angela Merkel is trying to hold the Greek bailout deal together, but a wave of anti-bailout "hysteria" is sweeping Germany, and now according to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard it looks like Merkel may not have enough votes to approve the latest bailout package....
German media reported that the latest tally of votes in the Bundestag shows that 23 members from Mrs Merkel's own coalition plan to vote against the package, including twelve of the 44 members of Bavaria's Social Christians (CSU). This may force the Chancellor to rely on opposition votes, risking a government collapse.
#16 Polish finance minister Jacek Rostowski is warning that the status quo in Europe will lead to "collapse". According to Rostowski, if the EU does not choose the path of much deeper economic integration the eurozone simply is not going to survive much longer....
"The choice is: much deeper macroeconomic integration in the eurozone or its collapse. There is no third way."
#17 German voters are against the introduction of "Eurobonds" by about a 5 to 1 margin, so deeper economic integration in Europe does not look real promising at this point.
#18 If something goes wrong with the Greek bailout, Greece is financially doomed. Just consider the following excerpt from a recent article by Puru Saxena....
In Greece, government debt now represents almost 160% of GDP and the average yield on Greek debt is around 15%. Thus, if Greece’s debt is rolled over without restructuring, its interest costs alone will amount to approximately 24% of GDP. In other words, if debt pardoning does not occur, nearly a quarter of Greece’s economic output will be gobbled up by interest repayments!
#19 The global banking system has a total of 2 trillion dollars of exposure to Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt. Considering how much the global banking system is leveraged, this amount of exposure could end up wiping out a lot of major financial institutions.
#20 The head of the IMF, Christine Largarde, recently warned that European banks are in need of "urgent recapitalization".
#21 Once the European crisis unravels, things could move very rapidly downhill. In a recent article, John Mauldin put it this way....
It is only a matter of time until Europe has a true crisis, which will happen faster ? BANG! ? than any of us can now imagine. Think Lehman on steroids. The U.S. gave Europe our subprime woes. Europe gets to repay the favor with an even more severe banking crisis that, given that the U.S. is at best at stall speed, will tip us into a long and serious recession. Stay tuned.
#22 The U.S. housing market is still a complete and total mess. According to a recently released report, U.S. home prices fell 5.9% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier. That was the biggest decline that we have seen since 2009. But even with lower prices very few people are buying. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homes dropped 3.5 percent during July. That was the third decline in the last four months. Sales of previously owned homes are even lagging behind last year's pathetic pace.
#23 According to John Lohman, the decline in U.S. economic data over the past three months has been absolutely unprecedented.
#24 Morgan Stanley now says that the U.S. and Europe are "hovering dangerously close to a recession" and that there is a good chance we could enter one at some point in the next 6 to 12 months.
#25 Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota says that he is so alarmed about the state of the economy that he may drop his opposition to more monetary easing. Could more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve soon be on the way?
And the conclusion which is, as usual, spot on:
Things have not looked this bad for global financial markets since 2008. Unless someone rides in on a white horse with trillions of dollars (or euros) of easy credit, it looks like we are headed for a massive credit crunch.
What we witnessed back in 2008 was absolutely horrifying. Very few people want to see a repeat of that. But as things in the U.S. and Europe continue to unravel, it appears increasingly likely that the next wave of the financial crisis could hit us sooner rather than later.
None of the fundamental problems that caused the crisis of 2008 have been fixed. The world financial system is still one gigantic mountain of debt, leverage and risk.
Authorities around the globe will certainly do all they can to keep things stable, but in the end it is inevitable that the house of cards is going to come crashing down.
Let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.
